HNQ Presents: The 2025 NCAA Tournament
A deep dive guide, or just The Big Dance at a glance.
Another electric college basketball season hurtles into Selection Sunday, and with it come the seasonal tourists that turn the NCAA Tournament into March Madness. Welcome aboard, everyone. Our destination is San Antonio, Texas, where one of these fine contenders will be crowned into college basketball immortality. Why don’t I introduce you to a few of them?
Tip: use CTRL+F to search for specific teams.
Program Prototypes
College basketball teams vary in style and construction more so than their NBA counterparts. Here are a few rough archetypes they fall under.
Run n’ Gun 🏎️
These teams play at a breakneck pace, verging on reckless abandon. Blink, and you’ll be down twenty. Expect high scores, and higher blood pressures.
Star Power 🌟
Whether it’s three, two, or just one, the individual talent of a few headliners can carry these teams to a championship. They won’t all be Christian Laettner, but there’ll be an opportunity, a One Shining Moment for each to make their name.
Bully Ball 🥊
There’s no extra points for style, and they aren’t trying. These teams are physical, tough, and maybe just downright dirty. They might not score a lot, but they will almost always score more than you.
Modern Marvels 📊
Heady hoopers utilizing precision, execution, and analytical efficiency to generate an advantage, these teams are the future of basketball and the scourge of your father.
Championship Characters
With college players still polishing their skillset, teams feature a strong division of labor and unique abilities amidst limited roster space.
Alpha Dog 🐺
With the game on the line, this is who you want the ball in their hands. Pressure is nothing to them, nor is a double team. The scouting report begins and ends with their name on it.
Heart n’ Soul ❤️🔥
These are the unsung heroes, the extensions of the coach, and the emotional leaders that programs are built with. Whether valued on the stat sheet or not, players of this mold put in the dirty work that wins championships.
Wild Card ♠️
Microwave scorers, erratic athletes, and freshman just discovering their true power, these players don’t always make their presence felt. Each team will need their card to come up if they want to go all in.
South Region
1. Auburn Tigers 🌟
🐺: Johni Broome | ❤️🔥: Dylan Cardwell | ♠️ : Tahaad Pettiford
It’s a little unfair when the most well-rounded team in the country also happens to have the best player in the sport. Auburn’s frontcourt consists of Johni Broome, locked in a runaway dual race for National Player of The Year with Cooper Flagg, and Dylan Cardwell, a player with a top ten analytical impact despite almost no statistical output. That balance between flash and dirty work perfectly sums up this Auburn team. No obvious holes, no glaring weaknesses, and a team-first mentality that has carried the Tigers to a 28-5 record despite playing one of the toughest schedules in college basketball history. Not every human and not every computer has Auburn as the favorite in this tournament. I’ll need thorough convincing to close my eyes and see another team raising that wooden plaque when it’s all said and done.
16. Saint Francis Red Flash 🥊
🐺: Riley Parker | ❤️🔥: Bobby Rosenberger III | ♠️: Chris Moncrief
It’s been a great couple years for Saint Francis. First, their old rivals Saint Francis, the Terriers of Brooklyn, shuttered their athletic program, allowing the former St. Francis (PA) to take up the full Saint Francis mantle with pride. Now, they’ve completed a shocking upset to earn a trip to the NCAA Tournament. Deep in the red of the analytics, banished for most of the season to the dusty corner of one of college basketball’s worst conferences, the Red Flash somehow upset the overwhelming favorite Central Connecticut State on the road in the NEC Championship while only scoring 46 points. Saint Francis won three straight games before the NEC Tournament in overtime, and won each of their NEC Tournament games by just three points. Clearly, Frankie the Friar has been dipping into some dark magic in addition to getting banned from local elementary school grounds. I’m terrified of this team (and Frankie the Friar) because I have no idea how they got here, and no idea what they’re going to do. I don’t think anybody else will either, and that could be their strength. Mostly, I just don’t want to see Frankie before I go to sleep.
16. Alabama State Hornets 🌟
🐺: TJ Madlock | ❤️🔥: Micah Octave | ♠️: CJ Hines
Southern may have won the SWAC regular season, but Bama State beat ‘em twice. While Alabama State might be the class of the league, they still have an enormous task ahead of them. No SWAC team has won a first round NCAA Tournament game since 1993, and there have been many with more regular season success than the 18-16 Hornets. Alabama State has shot over 30 threes in nine games this season; they’ll need to take that volume and pray to the most powerful God they know to have a chance at taking down anybody in this arena.
8. Louisville Cardinals 🏎️
🐺: Chucky Hepburn | ❤️🔥: J’Von Hadley | ♠️: Reyne Smith
As an injury bug turned into a crisis in early December, everybody wrote Louisville off. While the Cardinals were a feel good story after recovering from a historically bad, two season run under Kenny Payne, Louisville wasn’t a serious contender. New head man Pat Kelsey isn’t one to accept a moral victory, though. Despite having had four players suffer season-ending injuries, the Cards began rattling off wins, crawling back into the AP Poll and slowly recovering the depth that made this roster so intriguing. Coach Kelsey has perfectly translated his go-go-go approach to offense from Charleston to the ACC, and Louisville has, remarkably, been one of the best defenses on a per possession basis in the country. While the Cards have proven their mettle, they’ve done so against an ACC which sent just three teams to this tournament. That only matters so much when Louisville is 19-1 since Christmas and top 25 in schedule-adjusted metrics. Two years of Payne in Louisville are over, and the Cardinals are back.
9. Creighton Bluejays 📊
🐺: Ryan Kalkbrenner | ❤️🔥: Steven Ashworth | ♠️: Jamiya Neal
While Creighton teams of the past were feared for their incendiary three point shooting, this year’s group are actually specialists from inside the line, where the Bluejays make 61% of their shots, the second best mark in the nation. Much of that has to do with Ryan Kalkbrenner, an expressionless, 7’1, 270 pound center who has dominated the paint for five years running. Despite being fifth in the nation for blocked shots, Kalkbrenner’s impact is even more far-reaching than the stats might suggest, as he contests or alters just about every shot that comes near the rim with incredible discipline, as he, remarkably averages, just one personal foul per game. Creighton as a team fouls less than any team in the country, and they have no good reason to foul with Kalkbrenner’s presence allowing defenders to give ground whenever needed. While Creighton’s three point shooting isn’t elite, the Jays still take them at a top ten rate, and that’s part of the reason they’ve been so effective inside the arc. The Jays bait defenses into overplaying the three and then strike with back cuts, pump fakes, and lobs to Kalkbrenner, all of which combine to give Creighton the sixth highest assist rate in the country. The ball is always moving, screens are always being set, and Kalkbrenner is always lurking to erase any chance of somebody knocking the Creighton Bluejays out of this tournament easily.
5. Michigan Wolverines 🏎️
🐺: Danny Wolf | ❤️🔥: Tre Donaldson | ♠️: Rubin Jones
I ranked Michigan higher in the preseason than anyone else, but this season was by no means been a coronation for the Wolverines or my preseason rankings in general. Despite finishing second in the Big Ten, Michigan somehow finished conference play with a negative point differential, as they won close and lost big. While the highs have been high, with Danny Wolf dropping unbelievable dimes and undefendable crossovers unbecoming of his seven-foot frame, things have slipped a little bit out of control at times. Michigan has turned the ball over more frequently than any power conference team except Colorado, as risky plays such as the frequent lob attempts to Russian giant Vladislav Goldin have often gone awry. Looking cool comes at a price, but Michigan will have multiple moments in this tournament that will convince you that they have the magic to go all the way: they got there during the Big Ten Tournament. The Wolverines better hold on to that feeling tighter than they have held on to the ball this season.
12. UC San Diego Tritons 📊
🐺: Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones | ❤️🔥: Hayden Gray | ♠️: Chris Howell
UC San Diego’s graduation from the NCAA-mandated four year probational period for new Division I teams could not have been better timed, as the Tritons have put together a generational season of 30 pre-NCAA Tournament wins. No team has won the turnover battle more than UC San Diego this year, as they are fourth in turnovers forced and second in turnovers prevented. Threes have rained down all season, with a pair of Division II transfers in Ty McGhie and Hayden Gray hitting at a rate of 40% each. The best Division II transfer of them all, however, is stringy star Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones. The Kiwi has dominated the Big West to the tune of 20 points and four assists per night, while still finding the time to do the dirty work on the glass. Between the defense, the shooting, and the star, this team has every ingredient to go far in the NCAA Tournament, aside from any players over 6’8. UC Irvine center Bent Leuchten, 7’1, feasted in his first two matchups against the Tritons this year. UC San Diego proved that they learned from those tussles, holding him to just 10 in the Big West Championship. UC San Diego has slayed one giant. The rest of the tournament field awaits.
4. Texas A&M Aggies 🥊
🐺: Wade Taylor IV | ❤️🔥: Solomon Washington | ♠️: CJ Wilcher
‘Thangs ain’t always pretty, but A&M has found a way to get it done. Mimicking Houston’s defense and rebounding first, figure out the offense later approach, Texas A&M laid the foundation that has elevated Aggieland into the upper strata of a historically talented SEC. While this style manifested in a little too much of Wade Taylor IV chucking contested threes last year, the Aggies brought in Taylor IV’s childhood backcourt mate Zhuric Phelps, who now takes the lions’ share of the shots and allows Taylor to star in a more precise role. Andersson Garcia and Solomon Washington are all-world defenders on the wing, C.J. Wilcher and Hayden Hefner are elite three point shooters, while Henry Coleman II and Pharrel Payne do all the dirty work inside. Texas A&M have all the parts they need to earn the three hour road trip down to San Antonio, even if the pavement gets a little bumpy along the way.
13. Yale Bulldogs 📊
🐺: Bez Mbeng | ❤️🔥: Casey Simmons | ♠️: John Poulakidis
Yale pulled off an unbelievable upset of top five Auburn last season, sent Danny Wolf to go be a star at Michigan, and somehow just had an even better regular season than that one. It’s cliché for an Ivy League team, but Yale just makes smart plays. The Bulldogs almost never shoot threes, but only 18 teams make them more often. Yale forces turnovers at a top 25 rate, but almost never gives away the ball themselves. The Elis blocks opponent shots at a top 50 rate and also avoid getting blocked better than all but 53 teams. Yale prevents offensive rebounds at a top 30 rate and manages to grab more offensive rebounds than 80% of teams, despite having just one player over 6’7. Yale might not have the recruits of Duke, the history of Kansas, or the U.S. News & World Report best college ranking of Harvard, but they have solved college basketball in a way that a lowly plebian like me couldn’t possibly fathom. As Auburn learned in the opening round last year, that’s no joke.
6. Ole Miss Rebels 🌟
🐺: Sean Pedulla | ❤️🔥: Jaylen Murray | ♠️: Malik Dia
No one has ever said that Chris Beard can’t coach. This year might be one of his best jobs yet, as he’s figured out to how to not only survive but thrive on the defense end with two guards under 6’1, and no forwards over 6’9. Sean Pedulla has grown from a serviceable, if forgettable, guard at Virginia Tech into one of the SEC’s most formidable scorers with a headband and confidence rivalling even the great Kerr Kriisa. Malik Dia has relaxed from being the nation’s most relied upon player in the country at Belmont, settling into a role as a difficult cover and defensive nightmare with prodigious wingspan and fleet of foot. Ole Miss won’t be a popular team in this tournament, but neither was Texas Tech when Chris Beard took them to the title game in 2019. I wouldn’t expect one of his teams to go down without a fight.
11. North Carolina Tar Heels 🏎️
🐺: RJ Davis | ❤️🔥: Seth Trimble | ♠️: Elliott Cadeau
Standing at the free throw line, trailing archrivals Duke by one point with four seconds to play in the ACC Tournament, North Carolina forward Jae’lyn Withers stepped into the lane early, costing North Carolina the game. It was the fitting ending to a torrid season that saw North Carolina falter repeatedly against anybody worth their salt on the schedule.
But the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee decided to throw the Heels a bone. I’m not hear to relitigate that decision, but I’ll say that UNC’s worthy exclusion should be some indication of how this team has played this year. While R.J. Davis is one of the best playmaking guards in the country, Ian Jackson is an exciting freshman NBA prospect next to him, and Elliot Cadeau passes teammates open at an incredible rate, the combination of the three along with an undeveloped frontcourt presence hasn’t worked quite as well as needed given the resources, fanbase, and expectations behind the North Carolina program. There has been a lot of attention given to the lack of a true center on UNC, but it’s the performance of that backcourt trio that will ultimately decide the future of a college basketball program in peril.
11. San Diego State Aztecs 🥊
🐺: Nick Boyd | ❤️🔥: Miles Heide | ♠️: Magoon Gwath
Brian Dutcher doesn’t do rebuilding years at San Diego State. No matter the roster, his teams will lock you down, beat you up, and score just enough points to take the win from you, too. Don’t forget that SDSU was in the title game two years ago, either. The Aztecs’ two leading scorers each suited up in the Final Four game that sent them there, although Nick Boyd did so for FAU. Under the basket, it’s a combo of old and new as around-the-block senior transfer Jared Coleman-Jones teams up with freshman shot-blocking savant Magoon Gwath, forming a formidable barrier to entry at the rim. Fellow freshman Taj Degourville and somehow not a Wu Tang Clan member Pharoah Compton also get burn alongside emerging sophomores BJ Davis and Miles Heide. The future is bright in San Diego, but one or two of these future stars will need to accelerate their timeline in order to give SDSU any chance at repeating their remarkable run.
3. Iowa State Cyclones 🌟
🐺: Keshon Gilbert | ❤️🔥: Tamin Lipsey | ♠️: Milan Momcilovic
T.J. Otzelberger has built this Iowa State program on stifling defense, and the Cyclones finally have the offensive firepower to match. Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones form an incendiary shot-creating duo on the wings, Milan Momcilovic has a Dirk-esque pivot game, Josh Jefferson plays bullyball in the paint, all while point guard Tamin Lipsey is the ultimate maestro with some shake of his own. Meanwhile, the ‘Clones are a whirling dervish on defense, blitzing ball screens, switching n’ scrambling, and jumping every pass they have a remote chance to snag. Injuries have plagued ISU this season, and that means their record and seeding don’t reflect this team’s full potential. Full strength Iowa State are undefeated in regulation against anyone who isn’t Auburn, in overtime against anyone that isn’t ranked, and an absolutely terrifying force of nature for anybody in their region. If we ever see the Cyclones at full strength during the NCAA Tournament, start blaring the siren right away.
⚠️ Keshon Gilbert is not expected to play with a muscle strain.
⚠️ Tamin Lipsey expects to play at some point in the NCAA Tournament despite a groin injury
14. Lipscomb Bison 📊
🐺: Jacob Ognacevic | ❤️🔥: Wil Pruitt | ♠️: Gyasi Powell
This team can flat out shoot. That’s a major problem for opponents when they also have a 20 point per game scorer, Jacob Ognacevic, who shoots nearly 75% around the rim. Oh, and Ognacevic is also a 42% three point shooter himself. There’s no major weakness on offense for the Bison, who protect the ball better than all but 19 teams in the nation. While Lipscomb’s defensive numbers aren’t terrible, I struggle to see their pasty guards holding up against power conference athleticism. The Bison might have the be the ones taking a charge on that side of the ball. I’m also concerned that Jacob Ognacevic won’t be able to dominate the pain the way he has in the Atlantic Sun Conference, although once again the numbers suggest that he’s held up in games against the top 100. Lipscomb as a whole will certainly have to perform better than their combined 45-point losses to Arkansas and Kentucky. Unfortunately, that’s the sort of opposition they’ll see in the NCAA Tournament.
8. Marquette Golden Eagles 🌟
🐺: Kam Jones | ❤️🔥: Stevie Mitchell | ♠️: Royce Parham
Shaka Smart doesn’t want transfers at his program, and, frankly, he doesn’t need them either. Marquette has one of the most established cultures in the country, a foundation of toughness, hustle, and selflessness that has allowed the Golden Eagles to rotate an interchangeable core over the years as Marquette has become a yearly force at the top of the Big East. This year there’s a clear pecking order, however, as Kam Jones has become superhuman in his role as the starter and finisher of most plays for Marquette. Without an interior presence to balance out the weight of Jones, Marquette can be one-dimensional at times on offense. Luckily, that single dimension, the left arm of Kam Jones, is about as good as they get in college basketball. Kiwi center Ben Gold has improved somewhat as a driver rather than just a pick-and-pop specialist, Royce Parham has flashed potential, David Joplin has his moments, and Zaide Lowery will make ‘em if he’s open, but someone has to step up to Kam Jones’s level for Marquette to take that next step and find the tournament success that has eluded both the Golden Eagles and Shaka Smart since his arrival.
10. New Mexico Lobos 🏎️
🐺: Donovan Dent | ❤️🔥: Nelly Junior Joseph | ♠️: Filip Borovicanin
New Mexico has a fun factor matched by few teams in college basketball this season. Star guard Donovan Dent has bided his time to become the leader of this pack, and he’s had them running roughshod over the Mountain West Conference, as well as UCLA, USC, and VCU during an acronym-filled noncon schedule. Alongside Dent’s acrobatic layups, deputy guard Tru Washington has racked up steals and rained down transition threes all season. Up front, Nelly Junior Joseph owns the paint and runs the floor, threatening chase down blocks on any drive. The metrics don’t love New Mexico, but few teams have the potential to win over a neutral crowd the way the Lobos’ high octane, high degree of difficulty style can do in the blink of an eye.
2. Michigan State Spartans 🏎️
🐺: Jase Richardson | ❤️🔥: Tre Holloman | ♠️: Coen Carr
Just when I think I have Tom Izzo figured out, the legendary head coach pulls a fast one on me. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year in East Lansing after four of five starters graduated or transferred, but Michigan State won the Big Ten with three games to spare as the former bench players have stepped into shoes that were, frankly, too small for them. While Michigan State won’t tickle the twine from three, the Spartans run a lethal fast break, own the glass on both sides of the floor, and defend at a top-five rate in the country. Plus, they have some of the best characters in college basketball: the princely Jase Richardson, a freshman who has ascended into a starring role, Coen Carr, a dunking machine with out-of-this-world leaping ability, Jaxon Kohler, a power forward who looks like the roadie for a dwarf rock band, and Tre Holloman, the experienced point guard who wears it all on his sleeve. Tom Izzo teams have always been built for March. This one is no exception: they just got there early.
15. Bryant Bulldogs 🏎️
🐺: Earl Timberlake | ❤️🔥: Kvonn Cramer | ♠️: Keyshawn Mitchell
After outgrowing the Northeastern Conference, Bryant’s upward trajectory continues to steepen as they racked up double digit wins over every member of the America East Conference this season. Earl Timberlake is a point guard with the size to post up on most team’s centers, while Rafael Pinzon brought his Big East range to Smithfield from St. John’s. Kvonn Cramer and Barry Evans fight tooth and nail for offensive boards inside, dunking putbacks or kicking out to one of the five players shooting over 33% from three in the rotation. Four Bulldogs average more than 2 assists per game, as there’s been enough scoring to keep everyone happy. Bryant has been the biggest fish in the pond all season. It’s time to figure out whether they can swim with the sharks in the NCAA Tournament.
East Region
1. Duke Blue Devils 🌟
🐺: Cooper Flagg | ❤️🔥: Maliq Brown | ♠️ : Isaiah Evans
As both an avowed contrarian and an analytics guru, it has been difficult coming to terms with the media darling Duke Blue Devils ranking #1 in KenPom’s industry-standard efficiency algorithm. The evil empire of college basketball has built a verifiable death star; Duke is supremely talented, extremely versatile, and legitimately ten players deep. Cooper Flagg, a high school senior by age and a 10-year NBA vet by instinct, has delivered on a tabloid circus that was large for even the Duke machine. Flagg’s Robin this season has been Wisconsinite sharpshooter Kon Kneuppel, a freshman phenom with just as likely of an NBA future as Flagg. Alongside the gleam of Flagg and Kneuppel, the Blue Devils snagged defensive stalwart Maliq Brown in the transfer portal and landed Sudanese shot blocker Khaman Maluach, another freshman who patrols the paint and even steps out for a three every once in a while. It will take a major slip, such as the ones Cooper Flagg suffered on the last possession of losses against Kentucky, Kansas, and Clemson, to prevent Duke from hoisting their Flagg atop the Alamo this April.
⚠️ Cooper Flagg sat out the ACC Tournament after spraining his ankle. He will likely play in the NCAA Tournament.
⚠️ Maliq Brown dislocated his shoulder in Duke’s ACC Tournament opener and is unlikely to return.
16. American Eagles 📊
🐺: Matt Rogers | ❤️🔥: Lincoln Ball | ♠️: Geoff Sprouse
Only one of the three Division I colleges in D.C. is dancing, and it’s not the one with the banners in the rafters or the arena that can see the Lincoln Memorial. American brought back more minutes from last season’s team than all but five teams in the country, and that continuity has paid off as the Eagles play a connected, unselfish, and difficult to contain style that pleases the eye. Unfortunately, it hasn’t pleased the computers, as KenPom ranks American #2 in the nation in the ‘Luck’ stat, a measure of a teams expected record given their efficiency and the outcome so far. AU has won eight games this season by less than five points and haven’t lost any. To an average fan like me, that just sounds like the exact kind of clutch team I can trust when the going gets tough.
16. Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers 🥊
🐺: Dola Adebayo | ❤️🔥: Xavier Lipscomb | ♠️: Arlandus Keyes
The only school in Division I with a bowtie on their home court, Mount St. Mary’s is a surprise addition to the NCAA Tournament after being just the 6 seed in their own conference tournament. The Mountaineers have been playing catch-up, trying to figure out their rotations after losing two key contributors to injury during the season. They might’ve just found something down the stretch here. The Mount leaned on 6’8, 210 pound forward Dola Adebayo, and he shouldered the load down the stretch with a run of seven straight double digit scoring performances. Point guard Xavier Lipscomb is notable for being the only player at the NCAA Tournament to share both of his names with Division I schools, and that has to count for something even if he shoots 35% from the field. Mount St. Mary’s are more than likely cannon fodder for a team with much bigger ambitions. Oh, well. The Mount the merrier.
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs 🥊
🐺: Cameron Matthews | ❤️🔥: KeShawn Murphy | ♠️: Riley Kugel
Chris Jans made his name at Mississippi State with an ugly yet effective style, but after consecutive defeats in the opening round that’s begin to change. Transfers Riley Kugel, Claudell Harris Jr, and RJ Melendez have lit a spark in the Bulldog offense which now ranks inside the top 25 per KenPom. Josh Hubbard picked up right where he left off as a supersub freshman, and now runs that offensive show as the full time point guard. Vertiable linebacker Cameron Matthews has kept the defense from completely falling apart, as has the presence of KeShawn Murphy in the paint. With a three point percentage ranking in the 300s, Mississippi State still isn’t always a perfect display of modern basketball, but there might be just enough to get the Bulldogs over the hump and out of the first round.
9. Baylor Bears 🌟
🐺: VJ Edgecombe | ❤️🔥: Norchad Omier | ♠️: Robert Wright III
I was high on Baylor in the preseason, but my biggest concern was their depth. That has proven to be a major issue, as injuries have crippled the promising group that knocked off St. John’s and Arkansas in November. The Bears have just one real player over 6’7, although Nicaraguan center Norchad Omier has the impact of about three players in the paint on most nights. The firepower at the guard spots is palpable, as freshmen VJ Edgecombe and Robert Wright III bring elite shot creation, but the defense has suffered the brunt of their freshman mistakes. Since Thanksgiving, Baylor has beaten just one team in the KenPom top 50. There will be no margin for error in the NCAA Tournament for the Baylor Bears.
5. 0regon Ducks 🌟
🐺: Jackson Shelstad | ❤️🔥: Jadrian Tracey | ♠️: Supreme Cook
Dana Altman has earned a reputation as a tournament whisperer, and this year’s Ducks are perfectly positioned to make a mark in their old stomping grounds. Sophomore guard Jackson Shelstad followed Boston Celtics point guard Peyton Pritchard at West Linn High School, and he has more than shades of Pritchard’s game control and clutch gene. Shelstad’s backcourt companion TJ Bamba has excellent positional size to back down smaller guards, and massive center Nate Bittle has the outside shot to clear the lane for Bamba and punish double teams. 0regon comes into the Big Dance having won nine of their last ten. All of the signs point to a deep run from one of the regular tournament terrors in March.
12. Liberty Flames 📊
🐺: Taelon Peter | ❤️🔥: Colin Porter | ♠️ : Kaden Metheny
Biberty, I mean Liberty, are not just the best three point shooting team in the tournament, but the best at defending the three point line, too. It’s all about the threes in Lynchburg, but that comes at significant cost with no player on the roster providing above average proportions for their position. Both backcourt members stand under six foot, but each provide huge offensive threat. Kaden Metheny went thermonuclear in the Conference USA semifinal against Kennesaw State, hitting 7-13 from deep including four ridiculous heat checks in a row. Liberty were an overtime loss to FAU away from completing a perfect nonconference including a win over Kansas State. While the positional size deficit could prove fatal, the Flames have the shooters and the defensive discipline to keep college basketball fans saying “Liberty, Liberty, Liberty. Liberty.” all March long.
4. Arizona Wildcats 🏎️
🐺: Caleb Love | ❤️🔥: Jaden Bradley | ♠️: Carter Bryant
After posting a ludicrous 108-31 record in Tommy Lloyd’s first three seasons in charge, Arizona’s departure for the Big XII has brought things back down to Earth somewhat for the former Pac-12 power. While the backcourt of Caleb Love and Jaden Bradley are perfectly suited for Lloyd’s high tempo transition game, they leave something to be desired from the three point line where the pair shoot just 32 and 27 percent, respectively. Love in particular has become notorious for his cold shooting nights, as the former UNC star isn’t one to hold his fire once it becomes clear that the target isn’t being hit. Still, it’s impossible to forget Love’s heroics which defeated Duke in the Final Four and sent Coach K to his retirement. Some players are made for March, but heading into the Big 12 Tournament, Caleb Love had shot 24-84 in postseason games dating back to the 2024 Pac-12 Championship. That flipped when Love shot 10-15 from the field and scored 27 points against Texas Tech in the semifinal. Love may just be in the air once again.
13. Akron Zips 🏎️
🐺: Nate Johnson | ❤️🔥: Shammah Scott | ♠️: Bowen Hardman
While Akron is 27-6 on the season and lost just once in Mid-American Conference play, that doesn’t mean they haven’t had their fair share of adversity. Heck, just to get here, head coach John Groce had to overcome an 18-point deficit to his half brother who coaches Miami of Ohio. It’s difficult to overstate how significant Akron’s transformation on the court has been this season. The Zips were, on average, the 302nd fastest team in the country over the last three years; now, they’re slower than just eleven teams in the country. Speed kills, and the easy looks Akron has earned against gassed opponents have the Zips second in the nation in two-point field goal percentage. Don’t try to crowd the paint against them, though, as Akron also have six players who shoot better than 35% from deep. Akron’s defensive chops aren’t what they were when the Zips took four seed UCLA down to the wire two years ago, I can guarantee they will score more than the 53 they managed that night. Given that Akron has appeared in six NCAA Tournaments without winning a single game, a little change might be a good omen for the Zips.
6. BYU Cougars 📊
🐺: Egor Demin | ❤️🔥: Richie Saunders | ♠️: Dallin Hall
In the era of supercharged NIL funding, few programs have deeper pockets than BYU, and that’s made an instant impact as the Cougars return to the NCAA Tournament despite losing their head coach and best players from last season’s six seed squad. Former Phoenix Suns assistant Kevin Young has brought an NBA approach to college basketball, and Russian point guard Egor Demin will soon be headed there himself after a sterling freshman campaign in Provo. He’s not even the team’s highest scorer, as former role-playing wing Richie Saunders has benefitted most from Young’s new system, flourishing into a full on star for the Cougars. BYU was scorching hot heading into the Big 12 Tournament, ranking as the second-best team in the country since February 1st on BartTorvik. While Houston crushed them to end the first miracle run, history tells us that BYU might be able to pull off another miracle when they need one most.
11. VCU Rams 🥊
🐺: Joe Bamisile | ❤️🔥: Zeb Jackson | ♠️: Luke Bamgboye
In a league marked by chaos and confusion, VCU has poked a head out of the clouds this season as the clear best team in the Atlantic Ten Conference. While this isn’t one of the havoc teams that Shaka Smart took on deep tournament runs last decade, the defensive DNA has not waned. Instead, Ryan Odom has paired it with the magical sets that allowed his UMBC Retrievers to pull off the dramatic 16-over-1 upset that made history. With that kind of tournament royalty and a stifling defense that holds opponents under 45% from the field, VCU is a matchup nightmare for any team dreaming of their own VCU-like run.
3. Wisconsin Badgers 📊
🐺: John Tonje | ❤️🔥: John Blackwell | ♠️: Nolan Winter
These aren’t your father’s Wisconsin Badgers. The complexion of this program has completely changed, as the bruising post focus has given way to an electric offense with phenomenal spacing and a genuine go-to-guy in John Tonje. Sophomore John Blackwell has blossomed into a dependable second option to Tonje, while forward Nolan Winter’s three point shooting has opened up the floor, allowing downhill drives with the kick out always a threat. Wisconsin native Tony Bennett might be rolling in his grave, or at least on his sofa, but the Badgers have escaped the ranks of the defensive-minded that define the Bennett coaching tree. So long as that allows them to escape the early upset fate that doomed the Badgers last season in the tournament, coaches and fathers across the state might reevaluate their basketball philosophy.
14. Montana Grizzlies 📊
🐺: Joe Pridgen | ❤️🔥: Brandon Whitney | ♠️: Kai Johnson
Few teams have the sheer variety of attacks that Montana can throw at you, and that should provide some intrigue for those trying to find an upset pick that isn’t too one-dimensional. Heck, their leading scorer isn’t even one of the starters, as Money Williams (there’s a name made for March) comes off the bench and shoots the ball nearly 30% of the time he’s on the floor. Joe Pridgen is an effective undersized forward, while Te’Jon Sawyer is anything but undersized or one dimensional as he leverages 6’8, 252 down low while also stroking it at 42% from three. For all of their ability, however, it was senior Kai Johnson who exploded for 23 points in the finale of Starch Madness, the Big Sky Tournament in Boise. You just don’t know where Montana is going to hit you next. The Big Sky hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2006, as even the great Damian Lillard couldn’t get Weber State to the promised land. Montana can beat that because their opponents will have no idea whose Dame Time it will be on any given night.
7. Saint Mary’s Gaels 📊
🐺: Augustas Marciulionis | ❤️🔥: Mitchell Saxen | ♠️: Paulius Murauskas
As Gonzaga has receded from the pinnacle of the sport into simply a perennial top 25 team, Saint Mary’s has quietly become the class of the WCC, winning back-to-back regular season titles behind a defending, rebounding, and ball possession strategy unlikely to get them on SportsCenter but extremely effective at grinding out wins. Randy Bennett has quite literally gone to the ends of the earth to bring Saint Mary’s wins before; this time around, he’s built a juggernaut out of two Lithuanians, a Seattleite, one of his trademark Aussies, and a freshman from just down the road in Oakland. The Gaels are shrewd passers, avoid fouls, and force opponents into tough shots. Stringpuller Augustas Marciulionis, his beefier Lithuanian compatriot Paulius Murauskas, and the emerging talent of freshman Mikey Lewis work around Mitchell Saxen, a focal point and post force in the middle. This year’s Gaels are talented, disciplined, and ready to make Moraga proud on the world stage. They’ve travelled nearly the entire globe to get there.
10. Vanderbilt Commodores 🏎️
🐺: AJ Hoggard | ❤️🔥: Chris Mañon | ♠️: Tyler Nickel
Following last year’s 12-over-5 upset at the helm of James Madison, head coach Mark Byington has hit the deck running in his first season at Vandy. The ‘Dores didn’t make any splashy adds in the transfer portal, but they brought in a consistent class of dependable, winning players that run a tight ship which rarely takes on water. Still, a few of the sailors retain that star potential, as leading scorer Jason Edwards is a threat to go nuclear in any given game and Tyler Nickel can launch some missiles of his own from beyond the arc. Vanderbilt isn’t the fanciest vessel on the seas, but they can certainly sink another outfit’s tournament chances.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide 🏎️
🐺: Mark Sears | ❤️🔥: Mouhamed Dioubate | ♠️: Aden Holloway
Who would’ve thought just a few years ago that Alabama’s National Championship hopes as a university would rest on the hardwood, not the gridiron. Former high school math teacher Nate Oats has turned Tuscaloosa upside down, leveraging the financial heft of the Alabama fanbase in the NIL era alongside his devout allegiance to basketball analytics. Alabama will never take a mid-range shot, preferring dunks and threes which provide the statistical edge Oats honed back in the classroom. While this isn’t the most explosive Tide team we’ve seen during his tenure, their willingness to shoot early and often has not wavered, as Alabama is officially the fastest team in the nation, playing more possessions per game than anybody else. Point guard Mark Sears burns rubber to get the Tide into early offense, while Grant Nelson and Mouhamed Dioubate form a thunder-and-lightning combination down low that has Alabama third in the nation in two point field goal percentage. Only the unstoppable UConn Huskies were able to best Alabama in the tournament last season; Unless a defensive stalwart of that caliber steps in their path, I expect the Tide to run over any left lane campers that get between them and San Antonio.
15. Robert Morris Colonials 🌟
🐺: Kam Woods | ❤️🔥: Amarion Dickerson | ♠️: Alvaro Folgueiras
The only team left in Division I brave enough to use the Colonials moniker, Robert Morris has proven they aren’t really afraid of anything this season. After being picked to finish ninth out of eleven teams in the Horizon League, the Colonials have lost just once since January 12th, as opponents and markets alike continued to undersell them. I’m particularly intrigued by Alvaro Folgueiras, a long-armed foreign forward with guard skills and a difficult name to spell. Amarion Dickerson also brings some heft to a backcourt that won’t back down from anyone. In their one game this season against tournament level competition, RMU lost by 28. In just one game of their last sixteen have they lost at all. Pick whichever of those two stories you think tell you more about this mysteriously good team.
Midwest Region
1. Houston Cougars 🥊
🐺: LJ Cryer | ❤️🔥: J’Wan Roberts | ♠️ : Terrance Arcenaux
No team has seen more regular season success in the last five years than Houston, but they’ve failed to advance past the Sweet Sixteen in two consecutive seasons. Those results come with an Astros-sized asterisk as Houston lost successive All-American point guards to injury during tournament play on both occasions. This year’s squad doesn’t have a star player like that, perhaps a detriment, but also excellent fireproofing given the past two tragedies. Instead, they’ve learned how to shoot, as the Cougars’ three point percentage has rocketed up from 132nd in the nation to 4th, with L.J. Cryer knocking down a scorching 47% of his attempts. While Houston’s trademark offensive rebounding has always lessened the impact of misses, the injection of threes had made the Coogs near unstoppable on the offensive end. Given that Houston has finished top ten in defensive efficiency for five straight seasons, that’s a scary, scary proposition for anyone hoping to give them a problem.
⚠️ J’Wan Roberts missed the Big XII Championship with a sprained ankle. He is day-to-day.
16. SIU-Edwardsville Cougars 🏎️
🐺: Ray’Sean Taylor | ❤️🔥: Declan Dillon | ♠️: Ring Malith
I wrote an entire article last month about potential first-time dancers and didn’t even mention the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars. Just days ago, I previewed the OVC Championship game without even giving them a chance to get there. Why should I have? SIUE had never finished with a winning record in the Ohio Valley Conference, nor had they even played in the conference tournament final. It seemed like the Cougars had smaller fish to catch. In short order, SIUE has caught and eaten each of these increasingly larger prey before pouncing on OVC #1 seed SEMO for the ultimate prize of a first tournament bid in program history. While it’s been an admirable hunt for the Cougars so far, I still feel they lack the raw fitness needed to claw their way past one of the apex predators they’ll meet in the opening round. Clearly, though, my observations of SIUE haven’t been all that accurate so far.
8. Gonzaga Bulldogs 🏎️
🐺: Ryan Nembhard | ❤️🔥: Ben Gregg | ♠️: Braden Huff
This hasn’t been a year to remember for the Gonzaga Bulldogs, but no one has told the computers yet. Analytically the Zags rank as a top ten team, despite a number of close losses to good teams have lowered Gonzaga in eyes of human evaluators. Offense hasn’t been the issue for Gonzaga, as their trademark early post-up sets combined with the open floor wizardry of Ryan Nembhard have powered the Zags to a top ten offense in the country. Instead, the problems have been on the other end, where Gonzaga has been sieve-like all season. While they’ve experimented with reserve Emmanuel Innocenti as a defensive stopgap measure, the Zags must show a defensive intensity equaling their prolific offense if they want to prove the computers right and the haters wrong.
9. Georgia Bulldogs 🥊
🐺: Silas Demary Jr. | ❤️🔥: Blue Cain | ♠️: Somto Cyril
There’s few teams I’ve watched more this season than Georgia, and few teams that I understand less. It feels like every time I turn the game on, it’s Blue Cain and his buzz cut lighting up the other team, but then I check and he’s their fourth leading scorer. I see freshman Somto Cyril’s broad shoulders erasing shots at the rim, and then I find out that Georgia has an entirely different freshman center who’s a projected NBA lottery pick. Their two leading assisters are 6’4 and 6’5, not exactly the traditional point guard build. The stats tell me that Georgia is an elite defensive team that’s great at offensive rebounding and terrible at defensive rebounding. That probably makes as much sense to you as it does to me. I don’t get Georgia. I wouldn’t want them anywhere near my team in the bracket.
5. Clemson Tigers 🌟
🐺: Chase Hunter | ❤️🔥: Ian Schiefflin | ♠️: Christian Reeves
As the traditional powers-that-be outside of Duke have largely receded in a wavering ACC, the Clemson Tigers have continued to build off of the momentum they earned from an Elite Eight appearance last season. Despite losing star forward P.J. Hall, Clemson has improved upon their offense from last season, allowing transfer center Viktor Lakhin to soak up many of Hall’s former post touches. While the Lakh Ness Monster lurks in the paint, point guard Chase Hunter hasn’t lost a step from the tournament performances that made his name last year. Ian Schiefflin continues to outwork everyone on the floor as a rebounder, defender, and second scorer on the interior, while Boston College transfer Jaeden Zackery is a perfect second fiddle on the perimeter. Clemson is a well-oiled machine chock full of tournament experience. They’re also the only team to beat Duke since Thanksgiving. It’ll take another special run for that card to come into play.
12. McNeese State Cowboys 🌟
🐺: Christian Shumate | ❤️🔥: DJ Richards Jr. | ♠️: Sincere Parker
With a certified bagman at the helm, McNeese has been far too talented for the Southland Conference for two years running. Ironically, it’s actually been the homegrown stars of Lake Charles rather than the power conference mercenaries that have piloted the bayou boat this season. Christian Shumate continues to dominate the paint with incredible athleticism, D.J. Richards has the tenth highest O-Rating in the country, Javohn Garcia has blossomed into a go-to option on offense, and Joe Charles has become the team’s leading rebounder since coming over from Louisiana-Lafayette. Still, I have to wonder whether we’d be quite so excited if we saw this roster with the name Boston College emblazoned across the front. McNeese has been the big man on campus in their league, but they were also one possession away from losing four conference games to teams ranked 157, 166, 174, and 246 on KenPom. That being said, they went into Coleman Coliseum in November and stayed within touching distance of Alabama all night. McNeese State might just be waiting to flick the switch back on. I hope it doesn’t take too long to kick in.
4. Purdue Boilermakers 🌟
🐺: Braden Smith | ❤️🔥:Caleb Furst | ♠️: C.J. Cox
After losing Zach Edey’s unique gravity and back-to-back National Player of The Year awards, Purdue has receded back into their familiar territory as a top-25-but-clearly-not-top-10 team everyone will be circling as upset fodder in the NCAA Tournament. I’m not going to pretend that I feel much differently about the Boilermakers, as my first ever 14-3 bracket pick was against them, but I will provide a few reasons to resist the same temptations that lured me into Old Dominion all those years ago. Braden Smith has been a legitimate All-American caliber point guard, drowning out the noise that he was simply a beneficiary of Zach Edey. Smith has done his best Chris Paul impression all season long, putting defenders in jail on the pick and roll and fading away for elbow jumpers. Remarkably, he isn’t even the best scorer on the team, as Edey’s former undersized understudy, Trey Kaufman-Renn, has taken his increased workload and put up nearly 20 points per game while shooting well over 60% from the field. Every player on this Purdue roster was doubted last year because of Zach Edey. They haven’t lost to a single team outside of the top 50 without him. That doesn’t sound like upset fodder to me.
13. High Point Panthers 📊
🐺: Kezza Giffa | ❤️🔥: Bobby Pettiford | ♠️: Trae Benham
More talented than anyone in their conference by far, High Point has played with their food all season. In the Big South Championship, coach Alan Huss finally had enough. Down 15 to Winthrop, Huss pulled all five starters and sic’d his bench on ‘em. High Point stormed back to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Huss’s starters never saw the floor again. As I wrote last month, High Point has one of the deepest teams in the country, with eleven players featuring for ten minutes or more per game. Those aren’t just warm bodies, either, as the Panthers feature a lethal combination of former high major bench players and stars from second-rate leagues. I have no question that High Point has the athletes, the coach, and the purple houndstooth jerseys to show out at the Big Dance. I just have no idea who’s actually going to be on the court to do it for them.
3. Kentucky Wildcats 📊
🐺: Lamont Butler | ❤️🔥: Andrew Carr | ♠️: Ansley Almonor
After John Calipari's NBA Factory got ran out of Lexington following NCAA Tournament upsets to Saint Peter's and Oakland, Kentucky alum Mark Pope had an irate fanbase of unique size to tame this season. In opposition to Calipari's freshman phenoms, Pope has built one of the deepest and oldest teams in America through the transfer portal, and they've needed that depth as injuries have been as constant as the success for the Wildcats this season. Between Lamont Butler’s steady hand at point guard, Amari Williams’ passes over double teams in the post, and three point shooting everywhere you look, this Kentucky team is a perfect construction on the offensive end. Defensively, however, the Cats have struggled, particularly during Lamont Butler’s injury absences. Defense may win championships, but offense and a couple of plucky Kentucky kids have gotten Big Blue Nation back where they belong.
⚠️ Lamont Butler will be available for the opening round despite a shoulder injury.
⚠️ Jaxson Robinson will miss the remainder of the season with a wrist injury.
14. Troy Trojans 🥊
🐺: Tayton Conerway | ❤️🔥: Victor Valdes | ♠️: Marcus Rigsby Jr.
In a Sun Belt Conference typically full of exciting high-flyers, Troy does the dirty work that wins games in March. The Trojans crash the offensive glass at a top 5 rate nationally, hurtle themselves into the lane to draw fouls at a top 50 rate, and hold opponents to just 46% shooting from inside the arc, a top 25 mark. On top of this sturdy platform, Troy has a legitimate go-to-guy in former JUCO player Tayton Conerway, a crafty guard who pitches in with five rebounds a game of his own in addition to 24 points of buckets and assists per night. Sophomore Myles Rigsby, is no slouch either on the offensive end and adds four more rebounds per game to the guard tandem. Troy’s problem, then? They can’t shoot threes, and they insist on taking them. No team in the country has a higher three point rate with a lower three point percentage. While the offensive rebounding mitigates this somewhat, Troy needs to stop horsing around from deep to get past the first hurdle.
6. Illinois Fighting Illini 🏎️
🐺: Kasparas Jakucionis | ❤️🔥: Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn | ♠️: Kylan Boswell
Illinois has had a dash of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde this season, a bad thing for a combatant fanbase prone to overreaction on both ends. With just a single senior on the roster, Illinois has boundless potential but has lacked maturity in key moments, such as in overtime losses to Nebraska and Northwestern. Baltic freshman Kasparas Jakucionis has elite size and vision at the point guard spot, but he’s fallen a bit too in love with step back threes and other low percentage looks. Canadian freshman Will Riley has a sweet shooting stroke but doesn’t offer much on the defensive end. Sophomore Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn seems to provide a ton of spark off the bench, but his minutes have been inconsistent and waning since January. I never get the sense that Illinois quite knows what the best version of themselves is this year, but I can promise that their best is right up there with anyone else in this tournament. These are the teams that break brackets, one way or the other.
11. Texas Longhorns 🌟
🐺: Tre Johnson | ❤️🔥: Chendall Weaver | ♠️: Tramon Mark
Texas has certainly had tournament success riding a skinny, unstoppable scoring machine guard before. Tre Johnson might not be Kevin Durant yet, but for all the talent and money in the Southeastern Conference, it was Johnson that led the league in scoring without even chucking up all that many bricks. While I’m not a huge fan of his sidekick Arthur Kaluma, I should begrudgingly admit that Kaluma has drastically improved his O-rating, a sure sign that he’s making better decisions with the ball than last season. Rodney Terry was handed this job after Chris Beard was fired for misconduct off the floor. Now, he has the chance to earn it for the future. If Tre Johnson plays as well as he has all season, he’ll be earning quite a bit in the future at the next level.
11. Xavier Musketeers 📊
🐺: Zach Freemantle | ❤️🔥: Jerome Hunter | ♠️: Dante Maddox Jr.
The Xavier Musketeers were one of the trendiest teams heading into this season, as they brought back the stars and loaded up on transfer portal talent. While it took a long time to gel properly, the Musketeers have played like a top 25 team since February as the threes have started to fall. There were concerns that this group wouldn’t be able to defend at a high level, but Sean Miller has been able to get a good tune out of the Muskies on that end, as they’ve avoided conceding fouls and offensive rebounds judiciously to make up for the lack of a true shot blocker. This isn’t the team that college basketball fans thought they were getting, but it’s a unit that’s playing it’s best basketball of the season at just the right time.
7. UCLA Bruins 🥊
🐺: Tyler Bilodeau | ❤️🔥: Dylan Andrews | ♠️: Eric Dailey
With the sheer quantity of impotent rage head coach Mick Cronin has unleashed over the course of the season, you’d think the Bruins were buried at the bottom of the Big Ten. They finished fourth in the Big Ten and top 25 in metrics. The only thing higher than the standards in Westwood might be the volume of Cronin’s screaming at the officials. The only thing more unpleasant than Mick Cronin might be playing his team. Full of steely, switchable sentinels, the group’s discipline reflects the perfectionism of their coach; just two teams in the nation force more non-steal turnovers on defense. Mick Cronin might beat his players up, but they won’t beat themselves in this tournament.
10. Utah State Aggies 📊
🐺: Ian Martinez | ❤️🔥: Karson Templin | ♠️: Deyton Albury
Utah State has had their head coach poached in three of the last four seasons, and they’ve only gone and made the NCAA Tournament for a third straight years. Jerrod Calhoun might be next in line, as his mastery of the transfer portal and explosive offenses will be sure to catch the same eyes that drew Craig Smith, Ryan Odom, and Danny Sprinkle out of the coaching crucible that has become Logan. Calhoun’s squad does everything right on the offensive end: rebounding, avoiding turnovers, making shots, and getting to the free throw line. For all of Calhoun’s reputation in the transfer portal, it’s been the players he convinced to stay that have made the biggest impact. Flamethrowing guards Mason Falslev and Ian Martinez fill up the stat sheet, with the former a member of the rare 50-40-90 club if not for a bizarrely low free throw percentage. Up front, Karson Templin’s bleach-blonde mop tears around the court as he scraps and hustles for every loose ball opportunity, no matter how miniscule. There’s nothing Utah State fans deserve more than a deep tournament run led by the guys who have proven that they actually want to be there.
2. Tennessee Volunteers 🥊
🐺: Zakai Zeigler | ❤️🔥: Jahmai Mashack | ♠️: Chaz Lanier
The Vols have become infuriatingly consistent over the last few years, both for the opponents they dominate no matter the personnel, and for the dedicated Knoxville fanbase desperate to see it finally translate into tournament success. Last year’s bunch managed an Elite Eight trip behind the transcendent talent of Los Angeles Laker Dalton Knecht, but this year’s crop seem more like a chip off the old block. Chaz Lanier has some Knecht-like takeover ability but has gone through brutal cold stretches that could doom the Volunteers in a tournament setting. While the defensive consistency should make Tennessee upset-proof, Lanier will need to Knecht the dots for Tennessee to earn their first ever trip to the Final Four.
15. Wofford Terriers 📊
🐺: Corey Tripp | ❤️🔥: Kyler Filewich | ♠️: Jackson Sivills
Some conferences go a long time without a back-to-back champion. The Southern Conference Tournament has now gone six years without anyone winning it twice at any point in that stretch. This year, Wofford’s number has been called for the first time since Fletcher Magee and company lit up Kentucky in the second round. This year’s team is nearly as prolific in three point attempts, although they’ve made far fewer than that special squad. Instead, Wofford hangs their hat on rebounding, where the Terriers outclass 91% of Division I squads on both the offensive and defensive glass. That’s in large part due to Kyler Filewich, a mammoth in the paint who inhales just under ten rebounds per game and shoots free throws granny style. Senior point guard Corey Tripp pitches in four boards a night himself, although his primary focus is on the 29% of his teams shots he’s expected to take. Luckily, Tripp was able to take a backseat in the SoCon Championship as wing Jackson Sivills stepped up in the moment to deliver 20 huge points as the Terriers outlasted Furman. The Terriers still have the plucky underdog charm of Fletcher Magee and Storm Murphy, but they’ll need to hit threes at a rate high enough to justify their current volume if they want to prove that they aren’t all bark and no bite.
West Region
1. Florida Gators 📊
🐺: Walter Clayton Jr. | ❤️🔥: Alex Condon | ♠️ : Denzel Aberdeen
After two years of prospective puns about head coach Todd Golden, his Golden Era has finally, actually dawned in Gainesville. The Gators rampaged through a weak nonconference schedule before adding wins over the other top 3 teams in a loaded SEC during the new year. Flashy guards Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard highlight the offensive attack, dazzling defenders off the dribble and launching from anywhere they see fit. According to Evan Miyakawa’s numbers, however, they aren’t even the ones that should catch our attention. Twin bruisers and lob threats Matthew Condon and Thomas Haugh both rank inside the top 25 of BPR, a holistic measure of a player’s impact on the court. The two forwards set phenomenal screens, finish lobs at prodigious rates, defend the rim with special intensity, and have mastered the precise spacing that makes Florida’s offense so lethal. Walter Clayton Jr. might be the star that hits the shot to win the Gators a title, but that’ll only be possible with Condon, Haugh, and the now healthy Micah Handlogten creating Golden opportunities all night long.
16. Norfolk State Spartans 🥊
🐺: Brian Moore Jr. | ❤️🔥: Christian Ings | ♠️: Jaylani Darden
Norfolk State basketball isn’t a thing of beauty, but Robert Jones’s teams have bludgeoned their way to six seasons of 20 wins or more since 2015, a remarkable achievement given the financial strain of HBCU basketball. This year certainly hasn’t been the ugliest, as the guard tandem of Brian Moore Jr. and Christian Ings both shoot over 40% from three, a welcome reprieve for a squad that has ranked worse than 200th in three point percentage for three years running. For the most part, Norfolk State is going to force turnovers and draw contact to earn free throw attempts. So long as their opponents practice beating the press, I don’t imagine that strategy will be able to overcome the serious disadvantages that programs like Norfolk State face on the national level.
8. Connecticut Huskies 📊
🐺: Solomon Ball | ❤️🔥: Hassan Diarra | ♠️: Tarris Reed Jr.
After talking so much trash during the offseason that their head coach was yelling at computers for not ranking them high enough, UConn’s fall from grace with an 0-3 performance at the Maui Invitational was not only stunning but well received by anyone who had to put up with them. Ever since their trouble in paradise, the Huskies have not looked like back-to-back national champions very often this season. That should be pretty reasonable given how many players from those championship teams are in the NBA, but UConn head coach Dan Hurley has never been a very reasonable person. While the beautiful and intricate offensive sets remain potent, UConn’s defense has fallen off a cliff this season as their elite shot blockers have moved on to the next level. They desperately need Michigan transfer Tarris Reed to solidify the dominant potential he’s shown in a few performances down low this season, or they need longtime reserve Samson Johnson to cure his serious fouling addiction. The three-peat is no guarantee for the leading power in college basketball.
9. Oklahoma Sooners 🌟
🐺: Jeremiah Fears | ❤️🔥: Sam Godwin | ♠️: Dayton Forsythe
While their inclusion is somewhat ignominious given an eyesore of a conference record, Oklahoma proved they belonged here with the work they did outside of America’s best college basketball conference. Typically a ho-hum, working-class program under Porter Moser, OU has a prodigy in their midst this year. Point guard Jeremiah Fears should be a senior in high school, but instead he’s dominating the SEC and giving Oklahoma a fighting chance at eclipsing the mediocrity that has defined Sooner basketball over the last few years. OU hasn’t completely lost their roots, however, as former walk-on Sam Godwin remains a ferocious offensive rebounder who makes the smart plays and his teammates better. With Fears likely off to the NBA next season, Oklahoma needs to make a tournament run Sooner rather than later.
5. Memphis Tigers 🌟
🐺: PJ Haggerty | ❤️🔥: Tyrese Hunter | ♠️: Dain Dainja
Memphis desperately needs a lifeboat from the sinking ship that is the American Athletic Conference, and they made that perfectly clear by losing just twice in conference play. While the record is gaudy, the performances have been a little shaky with close wins against inferior opponents doing nothing to convince computers that have Memphis closer to mid major Drake than former conference rivals Houston. There’s no shortage of firepower in the arsenal with P.J. Haggerty scoring 21 a game, Dain Dainja leveraging 271 pounds in the post, and five Tigers shooting over 38% from three, but it’s been sloppy. Memphis does the big things that are impressive; they don’t take care of the details. They’ll need to get in there and find that devil if they want a shot at the Blue Devils later on.
⚠️ Tyrese Hunter missed the AAC Championship with a left foot injury. His status is day-to-day.
12. Colorado State Rams 🌟
🐺: Nique Clifford | ❤️🔥: Rashaan Mbemba | ♠️: Bowen Born
Few teams have had the monumental turnaround that Colorado State pulled off this season, going from 5-5 with losses against Washington and UC Riverside to second place in the Mountain West and champions of the Mountain West Tournament. No player is more responsible than Nique Clifford, who could’ve left this Rams team for the NBA last season but stuck it out and has been rewarded with a rising draft stock and a superb campaign leading the Rams in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and three point percentage. Colorado State’s fate rests on the broad shoulders of this all-around star, as they did last year in the NCAA Tournament: Clifford shot 7-12 and scored 17 points in a drubbing of Virginia during the play-in, but a cold and quiet 3-8 night against Texas doomed the Rams to loss in which they scored just 44 points. It’s time for Nique Clifford to show the world and the scouts just how far he can carry this team on his back.
4. Maryland Terrapins 🏎️
🐺: Derik Queen | ❤️🔥: Ja’Kobi Gillespie | ♠️: Rodney Rice
Maryland is back this season in a way it hasn’t been since a global pandemic shut down the best Terp team since the ’02 title winners. Maryland basketball has finally matched their fanbase with a brash, physical, and electric squad that won’t be afraid of anyone in this tournament. Workhorse Julian ‘JuJu’ Reese has been joined in the frontcourt by freshman phenom Derik ‘Dairy’ Queen, a unique athlete that has NBA scouts drooling over his massive frame and gazellic agility. In the backcourt, Ja’Kobi Gillespie runs the show and drops the bombs with a lethal step-back jumper. As Terp faithful always make clear, Maryland is looking down their bracket and planning to beat the hell out of you, and you, and you, and you, and you.
13. Grand Canyon Antelopes 🏎️
🐺: Tyon Grant-Foster | ❤️🔥: Collin Moore | ♠️: Caleb Shaw
While this wasn’t the banner year that many anticipated for the Lopes after bringing everyone back from the team that beat Saint Mary’s and took Alabama to the wire in last year’s NCAA Tournament, GCU still hung the most important banner of Western Athletic Conference Champions to get back to the Big Dance. The formula has been slightly different this year, with TCU transfer JaKobe Coles taking touches away from last year’s all-out star, Tyon Grant-Foster. I’m not sure how I feel about that. Coles leaves something to see desired on the defensive end, preventing Grand Canyon from playing the switchable, athletic defense that wreaked havoc in the tournament last season and boxing out players like Lok Wur and Collin Moore from rotational minutes. With both players far better three-point shooters than Coles and Tyon Grant-Foster’s percentages from deep plunging below 22%, I think Grand Canyon needs to get back to the style and players that have earned tournament success before, before it’s too late.
6. Missouri Tigers 🏎️
🐺: Mark Mitchell | ❤️🔥: Caleb Grill | ♠️: Trent Pierce
Mizzou is chock full of players who were counted out but wouldn’t quit. Caleb Grill wore out his welcome at Iowa State, Mark Mitchell was brushed aside by Duke, and Tamar Bates was given up on by Indiana. This team has something to prove, and they play like it. Anthony Robinson II was ranked behind 63 other freshman in college basketball this season; Evan Miyakawa now has him ranked behind just seven players in the nation. Everyone, including KenPom, wrote off Missouri’s 25-win season in 2023 as luck. Last year that seemed right, as the Tigers won a grand total of zero games in the SEC. Mizzou didn’t lie down. Dennis Gates didn’t resign his post. Missouri got players in the door with exactly as much to prove as the school, and they’ve formed an unshakable bond that has Mizzou back where they belong. So, go ahead. Pick against Missouri on your bracket. There’s nothing this team wants more than to be doubted again.
11. Drake Bulldogs 🌟
🐺: Bennett Stirtz | ❤️🔥: Mitch Mascari | ♠️: Isaia Howard
While it hasn’t been a great 12 months for Drake in general, the Bulldogs of Drake University have been tremendous on the court. Ben McCollum, the veritable Coach K of Division II basketball, faced the tough task of following the man who built Drake basketball from the ground up, as Darian DeVries left for the big time at West Virginia. Not only has McCollum proved that Division II coaches can do it at the next level, but he’s proven that Division II players can too, as the bulk of Drake’s starting lineup were McCollum’s players at Northwest Missouri State. Leading the pack is Bennett Stritz, whose buzz cut and t-shirt-undershirt might not lead you to the conclusion that he's played the highest percentage of team’s minutes by anyone in the country. Stirtz averages more than a full game per game, as he’s played every minute of multiple overtimes. Everything orbits around Bennett Stirtz, who is a true three-level scorer, a savant with passing angles, and even ranks in the top 25 nationally for steals per game. While the Missouri Valley Conference isn’t what it once was, Drake beat Vanderbilt by double digits in their only matchup against a power conference tournament team this season. Ben McCollum has always been judged by his cohorts. Time and time again, he has proven that they’re not like us.
3. Texas Tech Red Raiders 📊
🐺: JT Toppin | ❤️🔥: Darrion Williams | ♠️: Christian Anderson
While the Red Raiders started the year sluggishly, losing to Saint Joseph’s and Central Florida before the new year, Texas Tech has steadily marched into the top ten of KenPom’s analytical rankings, back to the territory they traversed when they made the National Championship game in 2019. It’s no surprise that the Red Raiders have improved as the year has gone along. With true freshman Christian Anderson coming into his own as a clutch shotmaker and true sophomore J.T. Toppin growing into an absolute monster on the interior, Texas Tech have found the perfect reinforcements for their senior core of all-around forward Darrion Williams, deadeye three-point specialist Chance McMillian, and mighty mite assist wizard Elijah Hawkins. All eyes in Lubbock will be on repeating 2019’s incredible run to the title game. With this year’s blend of speed, strength, and shooting, the Red Raiders could be Toppin that this season.
⚠️ Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams are both nursing injuries that could hold them out of tournament play.
14. UNC Wilmington Seahawks 🥊
🐺: Donovan Newby | ❤️🔥: Noah Ross | ♠️: Sean Moore
Takayo Siddle has been in fine fettle since taking over the UNC Wilmington program in 2021. His squads have improved in KenPom ranking every year and now have a tournament appearance as the bow on top. With a certain North Carolina school up in the ACC needing a new coach… well let’s save that for after the tournament. UNCW was no sure thing to get here, as they won their last two games of the CAA Tournament by just a combined five points. They’re battle-tested, perhaps none more so than fifth-year senior point guard Donovan Newby. The Seahawks have some tournament experience too, as wing Sean Moore was instrumental in Fairleigh Dickinson’s famous 16-over-1 upset of Purdue two seasons ago. No player in the rotation is younger than a junior, although reserve guard Greedy Williams, real name, is playing his first season of Division I ball after sharpening up at the junior college ranks. UNCW has toughness, experience, and seniority. It’s hard to look for much more in a tournament team.
7. Kansas Jayhawks🌟
🐺: Hunter Dickinson | ❤️🔥: DaJuan Harris | ♠️ : AJ Storr
It’s a testament to the Kansas program that a single week outside the top 25 was enough to declare an all-out emergency, but the truth is that Jayhawk basketball has slipped from its lofty pedestal over the last two seasons. The blame has been widespread. For some, it’s vulgar center Hunter Dickinson, for others it’s the limitations of point guard DaJaun Harris, and no one can deny the high profile misses in recruiting and the transfer portal. Whatever the issue is, however, it’s not enough to prevent Bill Self from dragging his team back to the tournament amidst all the noise. DaJuan Harris Jr. may not be able to take many shots, but his passing remains elite. K.J. Adams Jr. won’t knock down a three, but his rebounding and cutting are crucial. Hunter Dickinson might play basketball like he’s wading in a pool, but KenPom has him as the third best player in the country. The worst team in Jayhawk history has the eighth-ranked defense in the country, a veteran roster full of players with tournament experience, and a star to run the offense through. Lawrence may be burning, but I’ve seen Bill Self rise from the ashes too many times to count him out quite yet.
10. Arkansas Razorbacks 🏎️
🐺: D.J. Wagner | ❤️🔥: Adou Thiero | ♠️: Trevon Brazile
Sitting at 11-7, 0-5 in the conference play, it seemed like legendary head coach John Calipari’s second act in the SEC was going to do little to quiet the noise about his outdated system. Arkansas has gone 8-3 since then, including a win at Coach Cal’s old stomping grounds in Lexington, rescuing their season and launching the Razorbacks into the tournament. Heralded freshman Boogie Fland last played in that fifth SEC loss, and his absence has allowed FAU transfer Johnell Davis and last year’s big recruit DJ Wagner to take the reins. Oft injured but mega-talented forward Trevon Brazile has broken back into the rotation, forming a dynamic duo with 7’2 Zvonimir Ivisic, as both are elite shot blockers and strong three point shooters. That second aspect is particularly important, as none of the Razorback guards are reliable from behind the arc. The guards use their athleticism well, however, and make Arkansas very difficult to attack off the dribble. Given the difficulties of scoring in the post against Brazile and Ivisic, it’ll take a special shooting performance akin to, say, Jack Gohlke, to knock Calipari and the Hogs out of this tournament early.
⚠️ Adou Thiero will likely miss the opening round with a knee injury.
2. St. John’s Red Storm 🥊
🐺: Kadary Richmond | ❤️🔥: Aaron Scott | ♠️: Deivon Smith
While Rick Pitino has adapted to the transfer portal during his St. John’s tenure, his acceptance of the three point line is decidedly old school. St. John’s cannot, and more importantly, will not shoot threes. The Johnnies are 350th in percentage, while taking them less often than 93% of teams in the country. St. John’s know who they are, and they won’t apologize for it. Pitino’s teams press, harangue, and harry opponents up and down the court all night long, ranking top five nationally in defensive efficiency once you adjust for their lightning-fast pace. The fastbreaks that result from these turnovers are lethal thanks to the incredible athleticism and unselfishness of role players like Zuby Ejiofor, Aaron Scott, and triple-double-threat point guard Deivon Smith. This crew fires off down the court, whether they’ll get a chance to finish the play or not, and are first to the floor on any loose ball, immediately picking their heads up to try and find an outlet pass no matter their location or orientation on the court. Playing St. John’s is an all-out assault on the senses, even before you see the blinding gleam of Rick Pitino’s all-white suit.
15. Omaha Mavericks 📊
🐺: Marquel Sutton | ❤️🔥: JJ White | ♠️: Tony Osburn
No team has had more fun in college basketball season than Omaha. From an unpredicted run for the top of the Summit League standings to an outrageous, WWE-inspired ritual of demolishing a trash can after every victory, the Mavericks have enjoyed every second of the ride so far. Heck, the Mavericks didn’t even have to sweat their conference championship game since their opponent was ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. It’s been one big party all season long, and it's no small feat by head coach Chris Crutchfield to get this program to the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, this is a bit of a formal compared to the animal house Omaha has been hosting all year. Unless the Mavericks can swap the lucho libre for a domino, I think they’ll be kicked out of the Big Dance fairly swiftly.