Locking In
As rosters finalize and classes start, which teams will make the grade this season?
As my own final semester of undergraduate studies kicks off on Tuesday, so too do the academic calendars of college basketball teams nationwide. While I can’t pretend that academics are at the forefront of college athletics any more than I can pretend I’m excited for a class on Weather & Climate, the significance here is that the beginning of the academic term marks the point after which transfers are no longer eligible to play this semester. Outside of a few late registers that will begin playing in January, what you see on the roster is what you’ll get. With that in mind, I feel certain that I can finally begin previewing the upcoming season without the fear of a late transfer rug pull leaving me in the lurch. Given that classes are starting for myself as well, it’s probably not a bad idea to dust off the old keyboard and get back in the swing of things.
Big Dogs, Big XII
By both volume and quality, no conference has a better shot at the 2025 National Championship than the now-16-member Big XII. While the Houston Cougars and Kansas Jayhawks remain at the top of the pack, unsurprising for regular readers likely sick of hearing about them, they aren’t the only strong outfits at the top of this league.
The Baylor Bears made shrewd additions in the transfer portal, locking up Duke starting point guard Jeremy Roach and Miami’s fearsome center Norchad Omier. With top-five-ranked freshman V.J. Edgecombe jumping off the screen for The Bahamas in Olympic qualifying, phenomenal and faithful head coach Scott Drew and his Bears will have something to say about the duopoly at the top.
So too will the best of the league’s newcomers, Arizona. The Wildcats ran the Pac-12 in a duopoly of their own with UCLA, and they won’t be intimidated by the big money and big crowds of the Big XII, particularly as the McKale Center remains one of the best home court advantages in the country. In three seasons under Tommy Lloyd, Arizona has yet to finish outside of the top ten in either the BartTorvik or KenPom analytical rankings. As stat stuffer Caleb Love returns to Tucson alongside a cavalcade of talented big men, that doesn’t seem likely to change.
Finally, I’ll toss a bone to the computers, as BartTorvik’s preseason projections have the Iowa State Cyclones ranked third in the nation (although still second in the Big XII to Houston). I’m no robot, but even to my human eyes, Iowa State’s stats jump off the screen. The Cyclones’ defensive numbers are the deepest shade of green my conditionally formatted spreadsheet has to offer, and that’s no surprise given that they return four of five main contributors from the #1 defense last season, per KenPom. Iowa State’s transfer portal additions from Saint Mary’s, Charlotte, Northern Iowa, and Seattle U aren’t exactly grabbing headlines, but each new player possesses the defensive DNA and statistical performance to slot right into Iowa State’s lockdown system. The ‘Clones might not be fun to watch this season, but they’ll be even less fun to play against.
Tobacco Road Titans
College basketball’s spiritual homeland has always been in the state of North Carolina (sorry, Indiana), and the two most storied programs in the land each have phenomenal teams with a chance to embolden their blue blood fans to even further unbearability. Head coach Jon Scheyer has imported another unbelievable freshman class to Duke, headlined by #1 overall recruit Cooper Flagg, a generational prospect with a ruthless defensive motor rare for players of his talent. The most sure-thing, one-and-done NBA draft candidate in years wasn’t enough for Scheyer, though as he also nabbed #6, #15, #18, #25, and #38 in the freshman class, along with a smattering of older transfers. If Duke doesn’t win the national title this season, it once again won’t be for a lack of talent; as Jon Scheyer enters his third year behind the wheel of this Ferrari, it’s high time that he started winning some races.
Despite all the preseason plaudits that Duke’s roster building has earned, I’m actually more intrigued by their longtime rivals. North Carolina’s own roster construction has been nitpicked to death over the lack of a true center, but with their up-tempo style and star guard play from returning All-American R.J. Davis, the lack of a plodding big man might be a blessing in disguise. North Carolina has some highly touted freshmen of their own, and the newfound spacing and continued transition play will allow them to showcase their abilities for what I think may become college basketball’s must-see team.
Previous Peakers
You can’t talk about championship contenders without mentioning the previous champion, and you definitely can’t skip them if they’ve won the darn thing twice in a row. I want to sit here and write about how much UConn lost from last year’s team, and how this group won’t be able to replicate their success.
But that’s exactly what I did before last season.
UConn has become a unique force in the sport, and the player development led by assistants Kimani Young and Luke Murray has proven that they can’t be counted out based on an unproven roster. On paper, a team led by Saint Mary’s transfer Aidan Mahaney, role player Alex Karaban, and a freshman only ranked 18th in his class shouldn’t be enough to compete for a national title, but that’s exactly what UConn might do this season.
I don’t quite buy it, though. UConn was ranked 9th going into last season for me, and I’ve got them 8th this time around. Maybe if they win a third consecutive national championship this season, I’ll rank them 7th next year.
Following a dramatic Final Four run and All-American Mark Sears’s late decision to return to college, no team has gotten more preseason media buzz than the Alabama Crimson Tide. With all that fervor, my kneejerk, contrarian urge is to dismiss this team as a flash-in-the-pan, single-tournament-run-wonder, but even I have my limits. Alabama retains the three-point shooting that made the Tide offense so deadly last season, and they’ve likely shored up some of the defensive problems by bringing in Clifford Omoruyi, the heart of a Rutgers defense that ranked fifth in the nation last season, per KenPom. The depth of Alabama is remarkable; they have the #10, #22, #34, and #44 freshman recruits in the country, and I don’t project any of them to start this season. There’s a lot to like about the Tide this season.
But, my contrarianism can only be subdued for so long. Alabama finished a paltry 14th in the KenPom rankings last season, and with their starting lineup comprised entirely of fifth-year seniors, they’re unlikely to see as much player development from a veteran squad. Alabama trailed Grand Canyon with five minutes to play in their second round tournament game last season; if not for an aberrationally low 10% three point shooting night for the Lopes, the Tide almost certainly would’ve crashed out of the NCAA Tournament rather than making a Final Four. Just think about how different the narrative around this team would be this season had that been the case.
And it’s all just getting started. With a new college semester breaking ground, basketball season is right around the corner. For now, though, teams will be doing exactly what I am; taking classes, breaking down stats, and working on jumpers in the gym. Hopefully their development takes more after my academic performance than my three point shooting.
